Abstract and subjects
We present the results of a National Science Foundation Project Scoping Workshop, the purpose of which was to assess the current status of calculations for the nuclear matrix elements governing neutrinoless double-beta decay and determine if more work on them is required. After reviewing important recent progress in the application of effective field theory, lattice quantum chromodynamics, and ab initio nuclear-structure theory to double-beta decay, we discuss the state of the art in nuclear-physics uncertainty quantification and then construct a roadmap for work in all these areas to fully complement the increasingly sensitive experiments in operation and under development. The roadmap includes specific projects in theoretical and computational physics as well as the use of Bayesian methods to quantify both intra- and inter-model uncertainties. The goal of this ambitious program is a set of accurate and precise matrix elements, in all nuclei of interest to experimentalists, delivered together with carefully assessed uncertainties. Such calculations will allow crisp conclusions from the observation or non-observation of neutrinoless double-beta decay, no matter what new physics is at play.