Carmen Molina-Paris

Division and differentiation events by which cell populations with specific functions are generated often take place as part of a developmental programme, which can be represented by a sequence of compartments. A compartment is the set of cells with common characteristics; sharing, for instance, a spatial location or a phenotype. Differentiation events are transitions from one compartment to the next. Cells may also die or divide. We consider three different types of division events: (i) where both daughter cells inherit the mother's phenotype (self-renewal), (ii) where only one of the daughters changes phenotype (asymmetric division), and (iii) where both daughters change phenotype (symmetric division). The self-renewal probability in each compartment determines whether the progeny of a single cell, moving through the sequence of compartments, is finite or grows without bound. We analyse the progeny stochastic dynamics with probability generating functions. In the case of self-renewal, by following one of the daughters after any division event, we may construct lifelines containing only one cell at any time. We analyse the number of divisions along such lines, and the compartment where lines terminate with a death event. Analysis and numerical simulations are applied to a five-compartment model of the gradual differentiation of hematopoietic stem cells and to a model of thymocyte development: from pre-double positive to single positive (SP) cells with a bifurcation to either SP4 or SP8 in the last compartment of the sequence.

The study of a receptor-ligand system generally relies on the analysis of its dose-response (or concentration-effect) curve, which quantifies the relation between ligand concentration and the biological effect (or cellular response) induced when binding its specific cell surface receptor. Mathematical models of receptor-ligand systems have been developed to compute a dose-response curve under the assumption that the biological effect is proportional to the number of ligand-bound receptors. Given a dose-response curve, two quantities (or metrics) have been defined to characterize the properties of the ligand-receptor system under consideration: amplitude and potency (or half-maximal effective concentration, and denoted by EC50). Both the amplitude and the EC50 are key quantities commonly used in pharmaco-dynamic modeling, yet a comprehensive mathematical investigation of the behavior of these two metrics is still outstanding; for a large (and important) family of receptors, called cytokine receptors, we still do not know how amplitude and EC50 depend on receptor copy numbers. Here we make use of algebraic approaches (Grobner basis) to study these metrics for a large class of receptor-ligand models, with a focus on cytokine receptors. In particular, we introduce a method, making use of two motivating examples based on the interleukin7 (IL-7) receptor, to compute analytic expressions for the amplitude and the EC50. We then extend the method to a wider class of receptor-ligand systems, sequential receptor-ligand systems with extrinsic kinase, and provide some examples. The algebraic methods developed in this paper not only reduce computational costs and numerical errors, but allow us to explicitly identify key molecular parameters and rates which determine the behavior of the dose-response curve. Thus, the proposed methods provide a novel and useful approach to perform model validation, assay design and parameter exploration of receptor-ligand systems.

SARS-CoV-2 still presents a global threat to human health due to the continued emergence of new strains and waning immunity among vaccinated populations. Therefore, it is still relevant to investigate potential therapeutics, such as therapeutic interfering particles (TIPs). Mathematical and computational modeling are valuable tools to study viral infection dynamics for predictive analysis. Here, we expand on the previous work on SARS-CoV-2 intra-cellular replication dynamics to include defective interfering particles (DIPs) as potential therapeutic agents. We formulate a deterministic model that describes the replication of wild-type (WT) SARS-CoV-2 virus in the presence of DIPs. Sensitivity analysis of parameters to several model outputs is employed to inform us on those parameters to be carefully calibrated from experimental data. We then study the effects of co-infection on WT replication and how DIP dose perturbs the release of WT viral particles. Furthermore, we provide a stochastic formulation of the model that is compared to the deterministic one. These models could be further developed into population-level models or used to guide the development and dose of TIPs.

Reassortment is an evolutionary process common in viruses with segmented genomes. These viruses can swap whole genomic segments during cellular co-infection, giving rise to novel progeny formed from the mixture of parental segments. Since large-scale genome rearrangements have the potential to generate new phenotypes, reassortment is important to both evolutionary biology and public health research. However, statistical inference of the pattern of reassortment events from phylogenetic data is exceptionally difficult, potentially involving inference of general graphs in which individual segment trees are embedded. In this paper, we argue that, in general, the number and pattern of reassortment events are not identifiable from segment trees alone, even with theoretically ideal data. We call this fact the fundamental problem of reassortment, which we illustrate using the concept of the “first-infection tree,” a potentially counterfactual genealogy that would have been observed in the segment trees had no reassortment occurred. Further, we illustrate four additional problems that can arise logically in the inference of reassortment events and show, using simulated data, that these problems are not rare and can potentially distort our observation of reassortment even in small data sets. Finally, we discuss how existing methods can be augmented or adapted to account for not only the fundamental problem of reassortment, but also the four additional situations that can complicate the inference of reassortment.

We consider stochastic models of individual infected cells. The reproduction number, R, is understood as a random variable representing the number of new cells infected by one initial infected cell in an otherwise susceptible (target cell) population. Variability in R results partly from heterogeneity in the viral burst size (the number of viral progeny generated from an infected cell during its lifetime), which depends on the distribution of cellular lifetimes and on the mechanism of virion release. We analyse viral dynamics models with an eclipse phase: the period of time after a cell is infected but before it is capable of releasing virions. The duration of the eclipse, or the subsequent infectious, phase is non-exponential, but composed of stages. We derive the probability distribution of the reproduction number for these viral dynamics models, and show it is a negative binomial distribution in the case of constant viral release from infectious cells, and under the assumption of an excess of target cells. In a deterministic model, the ultimate in-host establishment or extinction of the viral infection depends entirely on whether the mean reproduction number is greater than, or less than, one, respectively. Here, the probability of extinction is determined by the probability distribution of R, not simply its mean value. In particular, we show that in some cases the probability of infection is not an increasing function of the mean reproduction number.